DTN Midday Livestock Comments          11/14 11:53

   Traders Lend the Livestock Contracts a Little Extra Support 

   No new cash cattle trade has developed and it's likely that the bulk of this 
week's trade is done with.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex has turned the corner this morning and is now trading 
higher into Friday's noon hour. No new cash cattle trade has developed and it's 
likely that the bulk of this week's trade is done with. December corn is down 8 
3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is down 126.78 points and NASDAQ is up 166.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle contracts are trading slightly higher into Friday's noon 
hour despite the fact that the day's fundamentals are lacking a bit with no new 
cash cattle trade having developed, and what has developed has been lower than 
last week's weighted average, and boxed beef prices are lower again. December 
live cattle are up $0.30 at $219.27, February live cattle are up $0.82 at 
$219.77 and April live cattle are up $1.35 at $219.95.

   So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $228, which is 
$3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have 
traded for mostly $351, which is $8.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 
And while it's looking like the bulk of this week's trade is done with, some 
more clean up trade isn't out of the question. Asking prices are noted at $228 
to $230 in the South and $351 plus in the North.

   Friday's WASDE report shared less than supportive news for the cattle and 
beef markets of 2025 and 2026. Beef production for 2025 fell by 70 million 
pounds from the last report in September, as fed cattle slaughter speeds have 
declined. The same similar trend is also noted for 2026 beef production as now 
the year is expected to yield 25,490 million pounds, which is down 100 million 
pounds from September's report. The biggest expected reason for the decline in 
slaughter speeds for 2026 is because fed cattle processing is expected to 
remain light, and with cattle spending more time on feed, marketings will be 
slower for at least the first half of the year. Quarterly steer prices were 
also disappointing as steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to 
average $234 (down $10.00), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to 
average $242 (down $5.00) and steers in the second quarter are expected to 
average $248 (down $3.00). Beef imports for 2025 remained unchanged, but 
exports for the year fell by 10 million pounds.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.89 ($370.68) and select down 
$0.50 ($354.53) with a movement of 99 loads (73.36 loads of choice, 8.21 loads 
of select, 4.16 loads of trim and 12.82 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Although, the feeder cattle complex was trading fully lower earlier this 
morning, it's now trading higher alongside the live cattle contracts. November 
feeders are up $1.45 at $338.45, January feeders are up $2.20 at $320.65 and 
March feeders are up $2.10 at $313.87. As long as the live cattle contracts 
continue to trade higher, the feeder cattle market will likely follow in its 
shadow.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex has also found a little technical support, which could 
be trader moral given that the cattle contracts are trading higher too, or it 
could partly be because consumer demand is showing more interest today as the 
midday pork cutout is up $4.68. December lean hogs are up $0.67 at $78.75, 
February lean hogs are up $0.65 at $79.50 and April lean hogs are up $0.40 at 
$83.25. It's unlikely that any more cash hog trade is going to develop 
throughout the day.

   The projected lean hog index for 11/13/2025 is down $0.89 at $87.94, and the 
actual index for 11/12/2025 is down $0.30 at $88.83. Hog prices are unavailable 
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we 
can see that only 738 head have traded this morning, and that the market's 
five-day rolling average sits at $83.23. Pork cutouts total 235.94 loads with 
220.66 loads of pork cuts and 15.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up 
$4.68, $99.94.

   Friday's WASDE report also shared less than supportive news for the hog and 
pork markets of 2025 and 2026. Pork production for 2025 fell by 80 million 
pounds as slaughter speeds have been reduced in recent months. Pork production 
for 2026 was also reduced from September's report as production speeds aren't 
expected to increase anytime soon and the market will have lighter inventories 
at that time as well. Hog prices for 2025 and 2026 weren't supportive either as 
hogs in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $66 (down $3.00), 
but hogs in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 and hogs in 
the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $70 (both of which are 
unchanged from September's data). Pork imports for 2025 grew by 10 million 
pounds from September's last report, but exports remain unchanged for the year.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com




(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.